tro soda / Natri cacbonat CAS KHÔNG. 497-19-8 Đánh giá nhà máy và phân tích dự báo

【Price Review】
Vào tháng sáu 2024, giá tro soda trên thị trường nội địa ở Trung Quốc giảm. Điều này phản ánh sự giảm 8.4% compared to the average price on May 29, indicating a shift from an upward trend to a downward trend; as of June 26, the mainstream final price for domestic dense soda ash was 313.54 USD/ton, which is a 9.6% drop from the price recorded on May 29.

[Bên cầu]
Vào tháng sáu, the domestic soda ash market in China witnessed a downward shift in transaction focus, with the follow-up of new orders being fairly average. Tháng này, overall production loads of soda ash manufacturers increased, resulting in a rise in market supply. The ex-factory price of light soda ash fell between 15 ĐẾN 40 USD per ton, while the terminal price for heavy soda ash decreased by 25 ĐẾN 40 USD per ton.

[Cung cấp thị trường]
In terms of market supply, the domestic glass market saw a weakening in both volume and price in June, with the price focus generally declining across multiple regions and a slowdown in transaction volume, leading to some low production and sales ratios.

TRONG 2024, the supply pressure in the soda ash market continues to mount. In the first half of the year, domestic soda ash prices have fluctuated downward, reducing cost support for downstream industries. Tuy nhiên, due to the underperformance of certain products, there remains intermittent cost pressure. The average price of heavy soda ash in the first half of 2024 stood at 310.48 USD per ton, marking an 18.98% year-on-year decline; meanwhile, the average price for light soda ash was 292.36 USD per ton, phản ánh mức giảm hàng năm của 15.47%.

【Market Forecast】
Looking ahead to market predictions, a certain level of replenishment demand is expected in July and August of the second half of the year, although much will depend on the status of individual orders. Close attention should be given to the improvement of orders from downstream processing plants in August.

【Domestic Supply Analysis for This Month】
Newly commissioned production capacity in China: None.
Vào tháng sáu, the soda ash production reached 3.18 triệu tấn, representing a month-on-month increase of 1%. From January to June 2024, the cumulative soda ash production totaled 18.67 triệu tấn. The average operating load factor for soda ash manufacturers in the first half of the year was 89.1%, which is a year-on-year decrease of 2.1 điểm phần trăm. Tuy nhiên, due to a significant year-on-year increase in production capacity, the soda ash output in the first half of 2024 increased by 18.92% compared to the previous year.

【Statistics on domestic imports of soda ash】
According to domestic statistics, in May, the import of soda ash reached 74,990 tấn, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%. The primary source of imports was the United States. From January to May, the cumulative import of soda ash totaled 674,000 tấn, which represents an increase of 265.77% compared to the same period last year.

【Statistics on domestic exports of soda ash】
According to data from our country, in May, the export of soda ash reached 73,950 tấn, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 18.3% and a year-on-year decline of 55.9%. The primary destinations for shipments were South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. From January to May, the cumulative export of soda ash amounted to 382,000 tấn, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51.96%.

【 Future outlook of soda ash market 】
Soda ash market trend forecast in the second half of the year: the most important factor affecting the soda ash market in the second half of the year is the supply side. In the second half of the year, the soda ash industry plans to add 2.4 million tons of capacity, and it is expected that the domestic soda ash production capacity will be 41.48 million tons by the end of the year.

July to August is the traditional maintenance season, the planned maintenance manufacturers gradually increase, supply or decline within the stage. The fourth quarter is the traditional production season, coupled with the release of new capacity, the supply pressure is greater. Về phía cầu, it is expected that the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass will increase by 10-15,000 tons in the second half of the year, and the amount of soda ash is expected to continue to increase. After the decline in domestic soda ash prices and the reduction of the price difference between inside and outside, the import volume is expected to decrease and the export volume is expected to increase moderately.