Sản xuất PVC Polyvinyl Clorua CAS KHÔNG. 9002-86-2 Đánh giá và phân tích dự báo

【Price Review】
Vào tháng 7, giá thị trường bột PVC trong nước biến động giảm, và trọng tâm giá di chuyển xuống. Tính đến tháng 7 29, the average price of China’s domestic calcium carbide process SG-May fell more than $25 / ton from the previous month, a decline of more than 3%.

Vào tháng 7, the ex-factory price of PVC powder was basically consistent with the market price trend. Affected by the decline in futures, the factory prices of enterprises have been lowered.In the month, the export orders of production enterprises were significantly reduced, mainly in the early delivery of orders, and some enterprises had the intention of holding prices in the domestic sales stage. Vào tháng 7, the overall orders of production enterprises were weaker than last month, and the range of factory inventory destocking slowed down.

【 Profit Side】
Vào tháng 7, the average loss of a single product of Shandong calcium carbide PVC powder increased within the month, and the average loss of Shandong within the month exceeded $40 /ton.

[Cung cấp thị trường]
According to data statistics, the output of PVC powder in July 2024 is estimated to be 1,860,002 tấn, 3.01% lower than the output of 1,917,841 tons in June and 2.22% lower than the same period last year.

The cumulative production of PVC powder from January to July 2024 is estimated to be 13,621,798 tấn, an increase of 4.05% compared with the same period in 2023. The decrease in the monthly production of PVC powder in July 2024 was mainly due to the fact that there were more maintenance enterprises in July, and the maintenance loss increased significantly from the previous month. Vào tháng 7 2024, the number of PVC powder maintenance enterprises increased, and the theoretical maintenance loss increased significantly compared with June. According to statistics, it is expected that in July 2024, the PVC powder production loss due to parking and maintenance factors alone will be 435,21 tấn (including long-term discontinued enterprises), an increase of 123,336 tons from the maintenance loss last month (the final value of 31,185 tấn), and an increase of 116,601 tons from the same period last year.

[Bên cầu]
1. Vào tháng sáu, the consumption of PVC reached 1.7195 triệu tấn, marking a month-on-month decrease of 4.81%, while year-on-year it increased by 5.56%. The reduction in consumption from May to June is primarily attributed to a decline in production during that month. From January to June, the cumulative consumption totals 10.5806 triệu tấn, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.30%. According to statistical data, the production of plastic products in China for June 2024 was 6.586 triệu tấn, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. The cumulative production from January to June stood at 36.194 triệu tấn, cho thấy mức tăng hàng năm của 0.5%. Additionally, in July 2024, there was a decline in the operating rates of downstream profile sample enterprises, with the operating load rate sitting at 24%, down by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month.

2. Vào tháng 7 2024, the operating rates of domestic downstream profile sample enterprises in China decreased. According to statistics, the average operating load rate among the sampled enterprises is 24%, representing a month-on-month drop of 2 điểm phần trăm. The domestic export order intake continued to show weakness in July, primarily impacted by the upcoming implementation of India’s BIS certification on August 24. Most Chinese enterprises face uncertainty regarding possible extensions of the certification if they have not obtained it, leading both buyers and sellers to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

3. Vào tháng 7, domestic PVC resin prices in China fluctuated and declined, with disappointing export orders leading to a simultaneous drop in export prices. Vào tháng 8, Taiwanese Formosa Plastics reduced its price for shipments to India by $70 per ton to $910 mỗi tấn, while during the same period, the price for acetylene-based PVC from China to India was assessed at $792 per ton and for ethylene-based PVC at $819 mỗi tấn, indicating a significant price advantage for mainland exporters (though it remains uncertain whether the effective date for Indian BIS certification will be postponed).
Vào tháng 7, the mainstream transaction prices for domestic acetylene-based PVC powder at FOB Tianjin ranged from $703 ĐẾN $730 mỗi tấn, while the export quotations for ethylene-based PVC were between $730 Và $755 mỗi tấn.

4. Vào tháng sáu, the export volume of PVC was 216,500 tấn, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.45% but a year-on-year increase of 37.32%. The decline in June’s export volume compared to May was attributed to generally poor order intake in May and a continuous rise in export freight rates during May and June. Cumulatively, from January to June 2024, the export volume reached 1.3047 triệu tấn, which is a year-on-year increase of 20.20%. In the first quarter, PVC powder producers experienced favorable export order placements, leading to relatively high export volumes in March and April. Tuy nhiên, as orders weakened, export volumes declined in May and June but remained comparatively high year-on-year, indicating an overall increase in export delivery volumes from January to June.
Vào tháng sáu 2024, the primary destinations for exports were South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The top five trading partners by export volume were India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan, and Malaysia, collectively accounting for 172,400 tấn, which represents 79.66% of the total export volume.

【PVC powder upstream raw material analysis 】
Vào tháng 7, the price center of calcium carbide market moved down, and the price trend continued to show regional differences, and the ex-factory price fluctuated more frequently within the month. In the first half of the month, the trend was “V”, and factory prices fell to the latest low point in the year before rising more than expected. In the second half of the month, after the first stability with the increase in shipping pressure and the price fell again, calcium carbide demand performance was weak.

【 Future Outlook of PVC Market 】
Vào tháng 8, the operating load rate of the PVC powder industry may increase compared to July, leading to a slight rise in supply. Regarding exports, if the implementation of the Indian BIS certification is delayed, it could provide some support for exports. Tuy nhiên, overall, it is anticipated that the increase in supply will outpace the increase in demand, sustaining the weak fundamentals of PVC powder. From a cost perspective, the overall profitability of PVC powder in August is likely to decline, while cost support may become stronger, though it is expected to lack a significant driving force.

Tổng thể, it appears that the operating load rate of the PVC powder industry in August may improve compared to July, with supply increasing. Domestic demand in China remains stable. In terms of exports, if the BIS certification is postponed, it might offer some assistance, but again, the expectation is that the growth in supply will exceed the growth in demand, leading to continuing weak fundamentals for PVC powder.

Looking ahead to September and October, seasonal maintenance for PVC powder is set to begin, and as the hot weather subsides, domestic demand may show some improvement. Optimistically, there is hope for an increase in exports in September and October if the BIS policy is postponed. Như vậy, the likelihood of further deterioration in the fundamentals of PVC powder during this period is low; additionally, the support at the cost level is expected to gradually strengthen.

In summary, it is anticipated that the market price of PVC powder may see a slight rebound from its lows in September, with potential increases in September and October.