Review of Acrylic Acid production in September & Forecast Analysis for October CAS NO. 79-10-7
Em setembro, the domestic acrylic acid market experienced low costs and a recovery in production, leading to an increase in demand and a slight upward trend in average prices. Em outubro, with costs remaining low and production peaking before declining, combined with a slight drop in demand, the market may see a low-level consolidation followed by a narrow rise in acid prices.
【Revisão de preço】
Em setembro, the domestic acrylic acid market witnessed a slight price increase followed by a localized decline, with the monthly average showing a small increase compared to the previous month. As of the close on the 27th, the monthly average price of acrylic acid in the East China market rose by 0.87%; no entanto, it still reflected a decrease of 2.88% compared to the same period last year.
The key factors impacting the acid price in September include a significant decline in the price of the raw material propylene, a low yet recovering operating rate in the industry, and limited restocking demand from downstream sectors. This month’s propylene market price is primarily influenced by cost factors and supply-demand dynamics. On the cost side, the price of crude oil has continued its downward trend with an expanded decrease, leading to a notable weakening of propylene cost support, which presents a negative impact on propylene prices.
【Supply Demand】
On the supply side, the number of facility shutdowns and maintenance has decreased compared to earlier periods, and some idle facilities have resumed production, leading to an overall increase in market supply trends. In Shandong, the availability of propylene is abundant, and production enterprises have a clear willingness to reduce prices to facilitate sales, while propylene companies are experiencing some pressure on inventory levels.
Do lado da demanda, propylene prices are trending downward, with a slight recovery in the profitability of downstream products, enhancing their capacity to accept propylene prices. Adicionalmente, influenced by pre-holiday inventory preparations, downstream factories are demonstrating good purchasing enthusiasm, leading to stable support in propylene demand.
The average price of raw propylene has significantly decreased compared to the previous month, resulting in weaker cost and price support for acrylic acid compared to August. Factory profit margins have improved, and there is a noticeable increase in production and sales willingness.
This dynamic environment suggests that the acrylic acid market is gradually adjusting to current economic indicators. Producers are likely to seize the opportunity to optimize their operations and enhance competitiveness. Amid these shifting dynamics, the potential for exports may also see a resurgence as international markets react to favorable pricing conditions.
Moreover, the interplay between supply chain logistics and production capacity will be critical in managing inventory levels effectively. Stakeholders should remain vigilant towards fluctuations in demand from key downstream sectors, which could further influence pricing trends in the forthcoming months.
【Domestic Acrylic Acid Market Review 】
In early September, Pinghu and Taixing maintenance equipment resumed production, and the industry started from around 70% at the beginning of the month to around 80% in the middle and late months. The average monthly load rate of acrylic acid started in September was 77%, up 6 percentage points from August. The industry starts to increase, the superimposed profit margin improves, the acid plant in the middle and late commercial acid shipment intention increases, in addition to some spot acid plants before the storage demand, the market price gradually from the early price to the late local price decline.
Em setembro, the main supporting downstream butyl acrylate Zhejiang main factory load increased, the monthly industry load rate of 69%, um aumento de 3 percentage points from August, at the high level of the year; Acrylic acid profit still exists, the factory production enthusiasm is OK, the monthly industry load rate rose to near 90%. Downstream SAP domestic and export demand has improved to varying degrees, and the terminal is in the shopping festival stocking stage, and the SAP industry load rate has increased by more than 10 percentage points from August. The water reducing agent was affected by typhoon in mid-early September, and the demand release was limited; In the second half of the construction conditions improved, the industry started to increase the load, part of the pre-holiday stock demand has been released, but the release is not as strong as the previous period.
【 Future Outlook of Acrylic Acid Market 】
Looking forward to October, under the combined effect of low cost, narrow supply and demand and short contract cycle, it is estimated that the acrylic market in October will rebound in a narrow range after finishing the low level, and the average price will narrow down from September.
1. In terms of cost, propylene cost support in October is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to increase and then decrease, and the cost support for acrylic acid will continue to decline.
2. On the supply side, in October, Xangai, Pinghu, Zibo, Fujian, Lanzhou part of the equipment maintenance is expected, Guangdong equipment is expected to resume production, the industry is estimated to fall to near 70%, the large probability of maintenance losses will exceed September, and the support for acid prices has increased slightly. No entanto, due to the short operating cycle of the October contract, it is more likely that the contract traders will speed up the shipment schedule after the holiday.
3. In terms of demand, the estimated start-up load of downstream esters, SAP and water reducing agents in October is mixed compared with September, and downstream comprehensive demand may be slightly lower than September. Return after the holiday, downstream or priority digestion contract, spot just need to choose low replenishment, acid price or continuation of the month low. Subsequently, under the boost of the good release of the device maintenance, the holder’s quotation may be probed, or drive the acid price to rebound in a narrow range.
